Federal meteorologists are warning of an unusually busy 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, citing an increased likelihood of frequent and intense storms.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday that there is a 60% chance this year’s storm activity will surpass the seasonal average. The agency projects between 13 and 19 named storms—those with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Of those, six to 10 could strengthen into hurricanes, and up to five may reach major hurricane intensity.
Laura Grimm, NOAA’s acting administrator and a marine scientist, addressed the forecast during a press briefing in Jefferson Parish, La. The event marked the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest storms in U.S. history. Grimm avoided commenting directly on how recent funding cuts targeting climate science could impact NOAA’s work but affirmed the agency’s operational readiness.
“Weather prediction, modeling and protecting human lives and property is our top priority,” Grimm said according to a CNBC report. “So we are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go.”
Grimm also noted improvements in storm forecasting, pointing to the accuracy of last year’s projections. In 2024, Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused over $37 billion in insured damages, according to a report by the global insurance firm Aon.
Despite the severity of recent storms, the US property insurance sector saw its strongest underwriting performance in over a decade, per a joint analysis by the Insurance Information Institute and Milliman. But that momentum may be short-lived. The report warned that economic headwinds and catastrophic events like the massive wildfires that swept through California earlier this year could undercut profits in 2025. Those wildfires alone have generated more than $50 billion in insurance claims, CNBC reported.
Severe weather hasn’t been limited to the coasts. This spring, the Midwest experienced widespread storms, including tornadoes and damaging hail. The Storm Prediction Center has recorded 883 tornado reports to date—roughly 35% above the seasonal average. Aon estimates that convective storms in the first quarter alone accounted for $10 billion in insured losses, with a May outbreak adding another $7 billion.
Data shows that average annual insured losses from natural disasters have surged 90% over the past decade, now topping $33 billion a year.
Bill Clark, CEO of reinsurance analytics firm Demex, told CNBC that this rising financial strain poses a serious challenge to the affordability and availability of home insurance, particularly in disaster-prone areas.
“Reinsurance (insurance for insurance) costs for severe convective storm losses are at a 20-year high and, coupled with limited availability, it is leaving insurers hamstrung and unable to transfer most of their mounting losses,” Clark told CNBC.
The surge in losses is largely attributed to increased development in high-risk regions, where property values and the cost of possessions have soared. In response, insurers are encouraging state and local governments to enforce stronger building codes and invest in mitigation efforts such as improved drainage, flood defenses, and fire-resistant construction.
